Calculating market growth rates

[Sean Haffey]

I have a lot of quarterly data for market size. I am trying to find out how
I can calculate the average growth rate for this market. For example, if I
know

- $10m was the initial market size
- $100m was the final market size
- it took six quarters to grow from $10m to $100m

Then what was the growth rate? I am feeling very silly because I used to be
able to work this out years ago but I've forgotten the formula and I couldn't
find what I wanted in Excel help.

 

[vezerid]

Sean,
how does this market grow? A linear trend would mean that the market
grows by more-or-less the same amount of $$ per quarter.
If so, then the average growth rate per quarter is computed by
(100-10)/6

HTH
Kostis Vezerides

 

[Sean Haffey]

Unfortunately, these are not linear markets. (Not at this stage, anyway).
What I am looking for is a way of calculating the Compound Annual Growth
Rate. But I can't recall how to calculate this or find anything is Help that
refers to CAGR. I know that it isn't a difficult calculation - although not
as simple as yours! - but I am exasperated that I can't remember how to do it.

But thanks anyway for taking the time to reply.

 

[vezerid]

OK, we are talking exponential.
100 = 10*(1+r)^6 =>
r = (100/10)^(1/6) - 1

HTH
Kostis Vezerides

 

[joeu2004]

- $10m was the initial market size
- $100m was the final market size
- it took six quarters to grow from $10m to $100m
Then what was the growth rate?

=RATE(6,, -10, 100)

That is the average __quarterly__ rate.

If you want the effective __annual__ rate, ostensibly,
it might be:

=FV(RATE(6,, -10, 100), 4,, -1) - 1

which is the same as (1 + r)^4 - 1, where "r" is the
quarterly rate, however you want to compute it.

 

[joeu2004]

Embellishment ....

=RATE(6,, -10, 100)
That is the average __quarterly__ rate.

I should have noted that that is the same as
(100/10)^(1/6) - 1.

If you want the effective __annual__ rate, ostensibly,
it might be:
=FV(RATE(6,, -10, 100), 4,, -1) - 1

I should have written "it __is__", not "ostensibly it might
be". I was thinking of how financial engineers annualize
the std dev, not the average.

Also, I might have noted that the above FV() function
can be simplified to:

=RATE(6/4,, -10, 100)

which is the same as (1 + r)^4 - 1, where "r" is the
quarterly rate, however you want to compute it.

..... Which, in your case, can be simplified to:

(100/10)^(4/6) - 1