Estimate duration from man-months remaining

[terrapinie]

This may be a weird question, or sound weird because I'm not quite
sure how to ask it... I have a project team of 10 people. We have 9
tasks of varying remaining length. We have allocated these resources
to the tasks so everyone has about 16 man-months of remaining work. I
need to estimate the remaining duration of these tasks with this
information. However, I cannot get project to do what I want. If I
put each person in with the % they will be working on each task, when
the task is complete, the % stays at, let's say, 15% until the work is
complete. This pushes the duration to be very large because these
people are working less than an hour for years. How can I make the
resources always working 8 hrs/day until the work for all tasks is
complete?
To help, here's the worksheet that my information is coming from:
Total Remaining
Man-Months|R1 |R2 |R3 |R4 |R5 |R6 |R7 |R8 |R9 |R10
Task1| 32 | | | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | | | |
Task2| 22 | | | | | | | 8 | 4 |10 |
Task3| 8 | | | | | | | 2 | 6 | |
Task4| 36 | | | 6 | 8 | 6 | | 6 | 6 | | 4
Task5| 12 | | | | | | 4 | | | | 8
Task6| 12 | | | | | 2 | 4 | | | 6 |
Task7| 8 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | | | | | | 3
Task8| 7 | | 7 | | | | | | | |
Task9| 22 |16 | 6 | | | | | | | |
_________________________________________________________
TOTAL| 159 |16 |16 |15 |17 |16 |16 |16 |16 |16 |15

This shows the total remaining man-months for the tasks, and the
man-months each person has had assigned to them.
I have calculated the percentage each task has allocated to it, as
well as the percentage each resource will be working, however, I
cannot figure out how to get accurate dates. I have even tried
putting one resource at 1000% and putting in the 200% or so that each
task has allocated. However, this just gives me the same finishing
date for each task. Any suggestions?

Thanks,
Laurie

 

[Mark Durrenberger]

Do you have 16 man-months of remaining work per person or for the team of
10?

Here is a rough approximation approach...

1) how many man-months did you expend over what duration to get where you
are now?

for example if you've expended 30 man months over the last 4 months then you
can calculate a burn rate of 30/4 = 7.5 man months per month.

2. Using this burn rate, project out the remainin duration. To do so divide
the remaining work by the burn rate - so using your data, 16 man months/7.5
= just over 2 months...

Yes its very rough but you don't need Project to try it out.

I'll think more about your specific post and get back to you.

Mark


--
_________________________________________________________
Mark Durrenberger, PMP
Principal, Oak Associates, Inc, www.oakinc.com
"Advancing the Theory and Practice of Project Management"
________________________________________________________

The nicest thing about NOT planning is that failure
comes as a complete surprise and is not preceded by
a period of worry and depression.

- Sir John Harvey-Jones

 

[terrapinie]

We have 16 man-months remaining per person. 159 man-months total. We
have broken down the tasks and allocated X# of man-months to different
people on the project who will be working on certain tasks.

Total Remaining
Man-Months|R1 |R2 |R3 |R4 |R5 |R6 |R7 |R8 |R9 |R10
Task1| 32 | | | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | | | |
Task2| 22 | | | | | | | 8 | 4 |10 |
Task3| 8 | | | | | | | 2 | 6 | |
Task4| 36 | | | 6 | 8 | 6 | | 6 | 6 | | 4
Task5| 12 | | | | | | 4 | | | | 8
Task6| 12 | | | | | 2 | 4 | | | 6 |
Task7| 8 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | | | | | | 3
Task8| 7 | | 7 | | | | | | | |
Task9| 22 |16 | 6 | | | | | | | |
_________________________________________________________
TOTAL| 159 |16 |16 |15 |17 |16 |16 |16 |16 |16 |15

This shows the total months for each of the tasks. This time is split
up amongst the resources. For example, Task1 has 32 man-months total,
and Resources 3,4,5,&6 will each be spending 8 man-months on the task.
Resource 3, for example, will also be spending 6 man-months on task4
and 1 man-month on task7. I need to input these tasks, and some
variation of the 10 resources (either enter each one or input 1 group
at 1000%) and determine how soon these tasks can be completed. Rough
guess would say 16 months since each person has 16 man-months to work.
However, we need to get a duration of each task and an estimated
finish date for each task.
I can input these tasks and assign the actual resource to each of them
at the percentage of time they have to work on each one, however, it
keeps this percentage after the other tasks have finished. This
obviously will not happen. Resource 4 -for example- would have time
split up - 47% on task 1, 47% on task 4, and 6% on task 7. But when
task 7 completes, the others stay at 47%, I want them to go to 50%.
Even though one task completes, he will still be working 8 hrs/day. I
can't seem to get project to always have the resources working 8 hrs.
a day.

Thanks,
Laurie

 

[Jan De Messemaeker]

Sorry but I stopped reading after a few lines.
What's the point of using a software if you have it all worked out by hand?
Or what's the point in making these elaborate calculations when you are
going to use a softwre?
Why not introduce the tasks, assign people to it, put links where they exist
and then let levelingod the job?
Just a thought..

 

[Mark Durrenberger]

Did you try my "rough" approach? What answer did you get? I'll bet you won't
like the answer because it will make your project much later than hoped.

BTW Jan is right, your queston is too complicated for us

Mark


--
_________________________________________________________
Mark Durrenberger, PMP
Principal, Oak Associates, Inc, www.oakinc.com
"Advancing the Theory and Practice of Project Management"
________________________________________________________

The nicest thing about NOT planning is that failure
comes as a complete surprise and is not preceded by
a period of worry and depression.

- Sir John Harvey-Jones