EVA and project completion date

[Strasser]

EVA fields in MS Project standard are helpful in answering 3 important
questions:
1) On schedule? (as of status date)
2) On budget?
3) Estimate of the final cost of project, if same behavior continues
(EAC) (extrapolated cost)

I wish the estimated project completion date was displayed.
The variance value at the status date, added to the original
Project completion date, assumes that everything goes "as scheduled"
from the status date to the end of the project.
If accurate, I would like to extrapolate out (because things
might continue to be as "behind schedule as they have been up the to
status date.)

I have been using the following method.
I am worried that I may be way off.

My questionable method:
At status date:
Divide the original complete Project duration / SPI.
This gives an "extrapolated" complete project duration.
Then I create a "fake" task and add this "fake task" temporarily tothe
project.

Fake task starts at Project Act.Start.
Fake task uses the extrapolated duration value.
The "fake" task will use the project calendar to plot the extrapolated
project duration.
Then I use the Final date of the "fake" task as the extrapolated
project completion date.

Reactions?
Should I stick only to the project completion date that assumes the
rest of the project will proceed "on schedule" or is this
"extrapolated date" OK to use?

 

[Sean Hanson]

Personally, and since this is a prefererence question, I like what you are
doing for the most part, one difference I recommend is that I use contingency
tasks at the end of each phase to account for not having perfect plans.
Depending on the known work and effort between 5 and 10%. These tasks can
absorb changes and be used in each phase/deliverable for what you are doing
with the SPI by adjusting them for the impact of slippage on the dates. You
can adjust the phases/deliverables according to their weighted value
following your approach and get a more accurate determination. So again, I
like what you are doing, but consider doing it by phase/deliverable and
weighted for that sections difficulty.
--
Sean Hanson

http://www.randsmanagement.com
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