How to compute Standard deviation with MSP 2000

[Jean-Luc]

I would like to use (pessimistic, realistic, optimistic)
estimates.

MSP2000 offers me the 'pert computation', which isn't very
useful as it sort of cumulates all pessimistic data - I
don't want to be that conservative.

Based on the realistic estimates, I want to use the CP
(Critical Path) and the estimated project end date. Then,
I would like to get the CP's Standard Deviation to
estimate the total project slack I can justify - in order
to meet stakeholder expectations to deliver with 95% of
probability (so, working at mean + 2 standar deviations).

How can I compute the CP Standard deviation?

 

[Jack D.]

I would like to use (pessimistic, realistic, optimistic)
estimates.

MSP2000 offers me the 'pert computation', which isn't very
useful as it sort of cumulates all pessimistic data - I
don't want to be that conservative.

Based on the realistic estimates, I want to use the CP
(Critical Path) and the estimated project end date. Then,
I would like to get the CP's Standard Deviation to
estimate the total project slack I can justify - in order
to meet stakeholder expectations to deliver with 95% of
probability (so, working at mean + 2 standar deviations).

How can I compute the CP Standard deviation?

There are a number of "risk analysis" programs which you can use to do this.
Risk + is one and I have forgotten the others.
Search on google for "monte carlo simulation" and "microsoft project".

They will give you a probablilty distribution. I believe that they will give
you the standard deviation and other statistical measures.


--
Please try to keep replies in this group. I do check e-mail, but only
infrequently. For Macros and other things check http://masamiki.com/project

-Jack Dahlgren, Project MVP


+++++++++++++++++++

 

[Ed Kilner]

For the project summary durations

(Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6 equals the standard deviation for the
standard PERT formula (O + 4E + P) / 6 which is the set of MSP default
weights.

--
Ed Kilner, P.Eng., PMP

(e-mail address removed) (416) 822-4835

Project Solutions Unlimited www.psu.ca