K
Karl E. Peterson
A lot of the focus of the Copenhagen negotiations has been on the
expectations for what the climate will look like at the end of this
century. It's a convenient milestone, and it gives people something
that they can wrap their heads around, but it's a very arbitrary and
unscientific time point, as some of the impacts of current carbon
emissions may take centuries to fully register. This is especially true
when it comes to sea level; current estimates of a rise of about a
third of a meter by the end of the century seem manageable, but it's
not as if the oceans will stabilize on January 1, 2100. A paper
published in Nature on Wednesday now provides some sense of just how
badly off that estimate may be, by showing that a period with similar
temperatures saw ocean levels that were probably over six meters above
the ones we currently experience.
http://arstechnica.com/science/news...ctions-may-bring-6-meter-ocean-level-rise.ars
Wow... And that's from a change of 1-2°C...
expectations for what the climate will look like at the end of this
century. It's a convenient milestone, and it gives people something
that they can wrap their heads around, but it's a very arbitrary and
unscientific time point, as some of the impacts of current carbon
emissions may take centuries to fully register. This is especially true
when it comes to sea level; current estimates of a rise of about a
third of a meter by the end of the century seem manageable, but it's
not as if the oceans will stabilize on January 1, 2100. A paper
published in Nature on Wednesday now provides some sense of just how
badly off that estimate may be, by showing that a period with similar
temperatures saw ocean levels that were probably over six meters above
the ones we currently experience.
http://arstechnica.com/science/news...ctions-may-bring-6-meter-ocean-level-rise.ars
Wow... And that's from a change of 1-2°C...