Monte Carlo simulation in MS-Project?

[Dr. Wolfgang Hintze]

How can I do valid risk analyses within Project?

The built-in procedure PERT is only of limited value. Here to each
activity there are assined three durations, optimistic, realistic, and
pessimistic. It is then possible to display three planning scenarios
(optimistic, realistic, pessimistic). But the drawback is that for each
scenario the same type of duration is taken for *all* activities, i.e.
if I choose the optimistic scenario for all activites in the plan the
optimistic duration is taken. (On the other hand it is helpful to be
able to display the average plan scenario.)

What I would like to see is the effect of a certain mixture of the types
of activity types. Hence my question: is there a Monte-Carlo simulation
framework within, or attached to, MS-Project, similar to the MS-Excel
framework called "CrystalBall"?

Thanks in advance for any hints.

Best regards,
Wolfgang

 

[Gérard Ducouret]

Hello Wolfgang,
The Palisade's @RISK for projet add-on do want you want :
http://www.palisade-europe.com/riskproject/

Gérard Ducouret

 

[Dr. Wolfgang Hintze]

Merci bien, Gérard!

It is in fact the kind of add-on I was looking for.

Wolfgang

 

[Rick Williams]

I have a program called SCRAM 2006 that has some different features,
including the ability to model decision points and contingency plans, and it
can also track risk over time. I can send you additional info if you would
like to see it. Unlike other products, SCRAM stores data on each task in an
Access databse on each run, so you can run reports on any task afterward
without having to run new simulations. It also identifies all paths through
the network and ranks them according to risk, and also rates tasks according
to cost risk.
I can be reached at (e-mail address removed).
Regards,
Rick Williams

 

[JackD]

You can try my free basic monte carlo simulation macro here:
http://masamiki.com/project/blackjack.htm
There are commercial packages with more bells and whistles.
Risk+ and @Risk are two rather well known ones.

-Jack

 

[davegb]

How can I do valid risk analyses within Project?

The built-in procedure PERT is only of limited value. Here to each
activity there are assined three durations, optimistic, realistic, and
pessimistic. It is then possible to display three planning scenarios
(optimistic, realistic, pessimistic). But the drawback is that for each
scenario the same type of duration is taken for *all* activities, i.e.
if I choose the optimistic scenario for all activites in the plan the
optimistic duration is taken. (On the other hand it is helpful to be
able to display the average plan scenario.)

What I would like to see is the effect of a certain mixture of the types
of activity types. Hence my question: is there a Monte-Carlo simulation
framework within, or attached to, MS-Project, similar to the MS-Excel
framework called "CrystalBall"?

Thanks in advance for any hints.

Best regards,
Wolfgang

PERT, or Variance Analysis, as taught in the PMIBOK, is obsolete, for
reasons I won't go into here. That said, you're description of how it's
normally applied is incorrect.You don't just add up all optiomistic,
pessimistic and most likely durations and come up with 3 estimates. You
add the optimistic, pessimistic and 4 times the most likely and divide
by 6 to get and expected duration. This gives you a sort of composite.
It's not very meaningful statistically, and with the availability of
Monte Carlo software, obsolete. But at least understand how to apply it
before you discard it.
Hope this helps in your world, Dr!