Predictions with Excell

[newguyA14]

Hi.
I want to create a spreadsheet that looks at multiple criteria to determine
the likelihood of something occuring. Specifically, a= 1,2,3,4 or 5, b<=
100,200,300,400,or 500 and c <= 10,20,30,40,50. Given these criteria, what
are the probabilities that a random number generator will pick a number that
= ABC?
Do you understand what i mean? I'm not trying to be vague, but I just came
up with the idea of doing this. I would say that I am of middling skill with
Excell. I'm not awesome, but not a novice either, so I can do some difficult
things but not too much. I will be making tables of the information to
determine the chances of each category. I need to know how to determine
overall probability of something happening, based on which of these things
apply to that object.
Example: Chair
Chair is blue. 10%
Chair is hard. 20%
Chair is wood. 30%
Overall likelyhood of choosing a hard wood blue chair - ?%

The actual parameters are as follows:

Code: A, F, B, PC, or MoE
Point Value: under 50, 51-100,101-150,151-200,200+
Trend: Up, Down, Same
Demand: High, Low, none
Type: Close, Distance, Strong, Support
Theme: 1, 2, 3

I need it to look at each of these and calculate overall probabilities from
the probabilities of each category. I hope i explained welll enough. I
relize this is difficult to explain.

Thanks

A

 

[RB Smissaert]

All very easy once you have the maths worked out yourself.
Obviously Excel can't do this for you as it doesn't know what you are trying
to do.
So, for example in the chair case, say the 10%, 20% and 30% are in
A1, B1 and C1 then in D1 you could put = A1* B1 * C and it will give you
the answer 0.6%
Etc.

RBS

 

[Neal Zimm]

I'm no VBA expert, but I've done a fair amount with probabilities, and you've
asked very much a probability question than a vba question.

Very briefly (Not knowing your background in probabilty) if all of the
events are indendant, then the final probability is multiplicative of each of
the chances of the independant events. overall chance = a * b * c

The events you list would seem to have many conditional values, so to
calculate the
chance of "a" happening, given that "b" and or "c" has or has not
happened is beyond the scope of writing a brief answer.

BTW, you don't need a random number generator if probabilities are correct.
The prob. is the chance of it happening. Your statements are not geared to
a simulation via iterating with a random number.