probability that project will we finished two days before planed dayin project

[talar]

Hello, I'm trying to find out where Microsoft Project 2007 shows
probability or variance for critical task.
For eg. I would like to know what is probability that project will be
finished on 15 december (planed date is 17 dec).
I have calculated PERT for every task but I can't even find variance
column to calulate it manually from equation:
z = (d-m)/sd
where:
d - specific date
m - mean date
sd - standard deviation

 

[Rod Gill]

Project Doesn't do that calc, but you can buy a Monte Carlo add-in that does
more. You also need a full Risks analysis with contingency calculated from
the risks.

--

Rod Gill
Microsoft MVP for Project

Author of the only book on Project VBA, see:
http://www.projectvbabook.com

Hello, I'm trying to find out where Microsoft Project 2007 shows
probability or variance for critical task.
For eg. I would like to know what is probability that project will be
finished on 15 december (planed date is 17 dec).
I have calculated PERT for every task but I can't even find variance
column to calulate it manually from equation:
z = (d-m)/sd
where:
d - specific date
m - mean date
sd - standard deviation

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__________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4671 (20091208) __________

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[salgud]

Hello, I'm trying to find out where Microsoft Project 2007 shows
probability or variance for critical task.
For eg. I would like to know what is probability that project will be
finished on 15 december (planed date is 17 dec).
I have calculated PERT for every task but I can't even find variance
column to calulate it manually from equation:
z = (d-m)/sd
where:
d - specific date
m - mean date
sd - standard deviation

Listen to Rod. Besides the fact that Risk Analysis software will do all
that and more for you, PERT has been found to be statistically unsound.
Yes, I know it's been in use for years. I first learned and applied it in
the 1970's, and it had been around for a while by then. Nonetheless, it's
not a valid method for getting representative risk-based estimates of task
durations. Monte Carlo analysis is.

Hope this helps.

 

[talar]

Listen to Rod. Besides the fact that Risk Analysis software will do all
that and more for you, PERT has been found to be statistically unsound.
Yes, I know it's been in use for years. I first learned and applied it in
the 1970's, and it had been around for a while by then. Nonetheless, it's
not a valid method for getting representative risk-based estimates of task
durations. Monte Carlo analysis is.

Hope this helps.

Thanks much for your answers, I will take a look at monte carlo
analysis. I found that there is a Microsoft Project 2007 VBA macro to
use Monte Carlo so I will take a closer look to it

 

[Michael.Tarnowski]

Thanks much for your answers, I will take a look at monte carlo
analysis. I found that there is a Microsoft Project 2007 VBA macro to
use Monte Carlo so I will take a closer look to it

Hi talar,
where did you find this monte-carlo VBA macro? - Does it apply to
previous MSP versions?
Cheers Michael